Three Marlins Prospects Who Could Make a Difference in 2020

The Miami Marlins have finished with a losing record in nine consecutive seasons.

In only six of their 27 major league seasons have the Marlins finished above .500, and they have never won 57 percent of their games. Hopefully in 2020, the tide will turn, as the 57-105 campaign they turned in last season was the second worst in franchise history.

At 1990-2314, the Marlins have the second-worst all-time win-loss percentage in major league baseball. Clocking in with a .462 winning percentage, only the San Diego Padres, at .461 (3747-4389), have it worse. For contrasts sake, the New York Yankees have gone 10378-7840, winning 57 percent of their games all-time. The San Francisco Giants, who lead the National League all-time, are 11165-9687 for a .535 winning percentage. Just for conversation’s sake, the California-Anaheim-Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim are the .500-est team right now, at 4709-4719.

At a collected 19.7 fWAR prediction, per Fangraphs, the Marlins are projected to go 68-94 in 2020. I’ve already went on at length as to how Miami could turn that prediction on its head and go for as many as 85 wins. An 85-77 campaign would be the fourth best in team history, behind only their two World Series Championship seasons and the 2009 club, which finished 87-75. If you haven’t already, please click the link above for an explanation as to how the Marlins are destined to fight for a playoff spot this season. But I digress.

It’s clear that I disagree with some of Fangraphs projections. I mean really? Brian Anderson at 2.3 WAR? Jonathan Villar at 1.8? Miguel Rojas at 1.7? Jon Berti and Garrett Cooper at 0.2? Corey Dickerson at 1.1? Sandy Alcantara at 1.2? Jordan Yamamoto at 1.0? In addition to these obvious miscalculations, which prospects has Fangraphs not accounted for in their counting of future Marlins output? Here’s a few that could surprise sooner rather than later.

https://twitter.com/Marlins/status/1188987361834799104

Drafted in the 17th round in 2018 out of CSU-East Bay, Alex Vesia is making everyone who passed on him 16 or more times scratch their heads.

In four seasons of Division I NCAA play, Vesia was 24-17 with a 3.01 ERA and 249 K’s in 313 2/3 innings pitched, mostly as a starter. Since getting drafted, however, the Marlins have employed him as a starter only once versus 51 appearances out of the pen.

A meteoric rise through the minor leagues has been topped off with a major league camp invitation to begin his 2020 season in earnest. A six-foot-two left hander from Alpine, CA, the 23-year-old motorbike enthusiast has crushed the competition at every level he’s been at for the Marlins.

Between five levels of minor league ball over two seasons, Vesia has posted an 11-2 record with a 1.62 ERA and 138 K’s in 100 innings. He’s walked 26 and allowed 1.010 WHIP.

But the thing about it is, he’s been substantially better at each level as he’s worked his way through the system. To wit:

• GCL Marlins: 8 2/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, three walks, seven K’s, 0.808 WHIP
• Batavia Muckdogs: 24 2/3 IP, 1.82 ERA, four walks, 31 K’s, 1.257 WHIP
• Clinton LumberKings: 31 2/3 IP, 2.56 ERA, 17 walks, 51 K’s, 1.295 WHIP
• Jupiter Hammerheads: 18 2/3 IP, 1.93 ERA, one walk, 24 K’s, 0.696 WHIP
• Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp: 16 1/3 IP, 0.00 ERA, one walk, 25 K’s, 0.551 WHIP

To reiterate a fact I quoted in an earlier article, Vesia has walked two and struck out 49 over his last 35 innings, holding opponents to a 0.629 WHIP at the two highest levels of competition that he’s yet faced. He struck out 13.5 batters per nine innings in 2019 between those two and Clinton, and may play well enough in Spring Training to make the cut out of camp. Vesia has future closer written all over him.

https://twitter.com/RNavarroCabeza/status/1207992243199631361

First baseman Lewin Diaz, who is currently Miami’s 12th ranked prospect according to MLB Pipeline, could also make some noise during Spring Training. As noted above, the Santiago, DR native is coming off a Rookie of the Year campaign in the Dominican Republic Winter League.

As I stated in an earlier piece, the Marlins have a possible three-way battle at first base coming into 2020, with Diaz, Garrett Cooper, and Jesus Aguilar. Cooper has proven utility, who can also play right field and hit around .280 with pop. Diaz is the only lefty in the bunch, leaving 2018 National League All Star Aguilar as the one with something to prove.

Diaz would pair nicely in a platoon situation at first base with either Aguilar or Cooper, should management plan to lean that way this season. Although Diaz only hit .200 in 31 games at Jacksonville after his acquisition last season, he also displayed his much ballyhooed power stroke with eight moon shots to arrive at an OPS of .740.

More from Marlins Prospects

• Miami Marlins: Checking in on prospects from the 2022 Arizona Fall League
• Miami Marlins: How top 2022 MLB Draft picks performed this season
• What’s wrong with Kahlil Watson?
• Miami Marlins: Farm System rankings part 2
• Miami Marlins: Farm System rankings part 1

Diaz, who came over from the Minnesota Twins with for Sergio Romo and Chris Vallimont, is already marked as the Marlins first baseman of the future. In his six seasons of minor league ball, the six-four lefty hitter has hit .268 with 63 homers and 263 RBI. Another selling point for Diaz is his relatively low whiff-rate, with a career mark of 17.6 percent. Although he doesn’t walk much, with a mark of just 6.6 percent, Diaz can be counted on to put the ball in play.

Even when Diaz struggled, he kept his strikeout rate low and never really tried to sell out for power. – MLB Pipeline

Diaz is already on the Marlins 40-man roster, and is in a position to join the Marlins with a decent spring showing.

What do you think? Who are some prospects that are poised to break out in 2020? Let me know below. Thanks for reading.