Now you all know I don’t care for Spring Training, especially when it comes to determining who should start or not. But that doesn’t mean the Marlins brass doesn’t care, so some decisions may be made based on Spring Training. I did some perusing through the various media outlets, particularly MLB.com, to find some info on how Fredi Gonzalez and the rest of the staff feels about some of the players they are seeing in Spring Training. I talked about it a little bit in our latest issue of Heater Magazine, but here are some more in-depth notes of interest based on tiny sample sizes and Marlins management’s opinions.

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Yesterday, I brought up how the Marlins pen may regress due to BABIP and strand rate performance from last year, and how that may affect the 2010 Marlins. This was all in response to this BP blog post by Russell Carleton on the topic. I weighed in on the topic myself, but I don’t think I added a whole lot to the discussion. One thing I did find interesting was a comment by reader Kampfer about Ricky Nolasco and how many “extra” runs he gave up last year on his way to a 5.06 ERA. Could those runs make up for some of the lost value from the pen?

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And now we’ve come to the last post in this series.  For it, we’re going to look at fellow 2008 draftee Isaac Galloway.  Like Kyle Skipworth, he was considered a first round talent, but fell in the draft due to signability issues.  It looked like the Marlins had a steal on their hands when they draft and signed him in the 8th round, but so far things have not come to fruition.  After the jump, we’ll look at why.

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This according to Baseball Prospectus’ Russell Carleton (formerly known as Pizza Cutter). I’ll break down his take (BP Premium subscribers only, I believe, though I think I have fantasy access and still got to read everything) bit by bit, starting with this:

The Marlins outplayed their Pythagorean projection by about 5 games, winning 87 rather than the 82 that would have been expected of them given their total runs scored and runs allowed. The Braves, on the other hand, underplayed their projection by 5 games. In general, a team significantly over-performs by winning a lot of close games, and loses a lot of blowouts.

I went ahead on checked on the Marlins and Atlanta Braves in terms of close games and blowouts. My assumption coming in was that Carleton was correct on this point. Sure enough, the Marlins had indeed performed a little too well in one-run games, going 30-20 last season in games that they probably should have split. In fact, splitting those games gives up those five games that Pythagorean says we should not have won! The Marlins split extra-inning games as expected, but also won two rain-shortened games, contests that may or may not have been appropriate to win.

How did the Braves fair in these same contests? The Braves mostly split one run games, though they were two games over on those games. They also won blowouts at a large rate, which helps to drop their actual win total compared to their Pythagorean rate. The Braves also won one extra extra-inning game and one rain-shortened blowout. Really, shouldn’t we be dropping their win totals too?

Obviously, that’s not a good way to analyze things, but it doesn’t really matter. We know the Marlins outperformed their Pythagorean as well as their context-neutral WAR performance. The question Carleton was getting at was whether the Marlins would perform to 2009 levels in 2010. And here, the bullpen was at the heart of the issue.

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This in response to this piece on MLB.com.

If you’re looking for a sleeper to make the Marlins’ roster, jot down the name Jorge Jimenez.

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The way Jimenez has looked thus far since reporting to Spring Training has the Marlins considering carrying him as their starting third baseman. For that to happen, there are a few scenarios in play for him. Foremost, he must show that he is deserving of a big league roster spot.

Secondly, the Marlins’ first-base showdown must sort itself out. Prospects Gaby Sanchez and Logan Morrison are competing for the starting job. If neither is considered ready, Jorge Cantu may move from third base back to first base. Jimenez then would step in as the third baseman.

After that, the article discusses how Jorge Jimenez may make the roster as a a left-handed bench bat, which is far more likely. When I first passed this article, I immediately thought about this short thought Dave of Marlins Diehards put up last week.

I do not wish to equate Jimenez with Emilio Bonifacio, but this is how we ended up with Emilio Bonifacio as the starting third-baseman for 82 games last year.

I’m not the only person noticing this, right?

You were not, Dave. I think we all feel that a return to the days of Emilio Bonifacio is a scary thought, and if Jimenez even approaches that kind of level, then we may be in for some rough waters if he starts. But does he? How do they compare? Let’s take a quick look.

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