I am more than happy to se the Marlins pick up a series win against the Washington Nationals, whether or not the team’s season depends on such a thing. However, as exciting a win as the 1-0 victory in the second game was or how rewarding the 16-10 blowout was in the finale, nothing was going to override the antics and happenngs surrounding Nyjer Morgan and the Marlins this weekend. So despite an excellent series win, this Fish-Cap is going to revolve around what happened between Morgan and the Marlins.
As part of FanSided’s collaborative August post, the baseball bloggers of FanSided are commenting on what players should get a look at the major league level this upcoming September. While some teams have plenty of options available to bring up for a cup of coffee this upcoming month, the Marlins’ cupboard is rather empty on prospects. With Mike Stanton already tearing up the majors and Logan Morrison and Cameron Maybin brought up by necessity, the Fish really have their most important youngsters already up in the majors.
One name that you may not hear for a callup, even though he is the only logivcal remaining option, is third base prospect Matt Dominguez. The 20-year old has not stood out with his performance this season, but could be worth a look in the majors for September. In the upcoming Call to the Pen post, I discussed the primary reason why the Marlins should bring him up, but here I’d rather go into further detail about Dominguez’ minor league production and update his progress from the beginning of the season.
The Marlins are coming off a disappoiting series at Atlanta against hte Atlanta Braves, but they get a familiar foe in the form of the Washington Nationals. The story is as usual: we have traditionally owned the Nationals, and hopefully we can follow up that ownage with a series sweep.
Washington Nationals (56-75) @ Florida Marlins, August 30 – September 1, Games 130-132
NL East Standings
| Tm | W | L | Win% | GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 75 | 55 | .577 | – |
| PHI | 73 | 57 | .562 | 2.0 |
| FLA | 65 | 64 | .504 | 9.5 |
| NYM | 65 | 65 | .500 | 10.0 |
| WSN | 56 | 75 | .427 | 19.5 |
Stadium: Sun Life Stadium
Five-year Run PF*: 0.99
Five-year HR PF*: 0.97
Stadium Dimensions:
Left Field: 330 ft.
Left-Center: 361
Center Field: 404
Right-Center: 361
Right Field: 345
*Five-year regressed park factors provided by Patriot here
This has been an overall interesting season for Dan Uggla. He is having his best season offensively and overall, with a career-high .380 wOBA and 4.4 WAR with a month left in the season. While he is unlikely to eclipse the 5.0 WAR mark, a 4.5+ WAR year is not out of the question and would be quite commendable for the Marlins slugger. It would also fuel the desire of the team to sign Uggla for a couple more seasons after this one, despite concerns about his age and skillset typically considered ripe for decline.
One of the interesting aspects of this season for Uggla is his unusual “clutch” performance in high leverage situations. Before this season, Uggla had 253 PA of what was considered “high-leverage” situations in his career (likely situations with a Leverage Index greater than at least 2.0). Before the season, he had a wOBA of .301 in those high leverage PA. But this season he has exploded with everything on the line, to the tune of a .456 wOBA in 50 high-leverage PA.
Have all the questions of clutch performance fallen by the wayside with this performance? I sure hope not.
Once again, Tom Tango is out to find out what fans of teams think about their own players’ defense. The 2010 Fans Scouting Report is here, and I am looking to get more Marlins ballots in this year than in years past. So far, eight ballots have come in, my own not included. I will probably not post one this year, as I have had a difficult time watching games due to my TV situation. Instead, I am going to depend on the loyal fans of Marlin Maniac to fill in ballots.
When you get a chance, submit a Marlins ballot here, but check out the rules first. The most important thing to remember is to not use defensive statistics. Please use only your eyes in judging our Marlins. If you had the privilege to attend a decent amount of Marlins games live, we’d love to know what you think. If you haven’t, but watched them plenty on TV, put in a ballot as well. The more, the merrier.
After last night’s 11-4 victory over the New York Mets, the official Marlins website headlined the game recap with the following title:
“Marlins refuse to fade, gain ground in races.”
The site then followed with this front-page teaser about the upcoming series between the Marlins and Atlanta Braves:
“Making headway in the standings, the Marlins head to Atlanta for the opener of a three-game set vs. the first-place Braves. Chris Volstad starts for Florida, with first pitch at 7:35 ET.”
Clearly, both these statements are coming from the official Florida Marlins website, so it would be difficult to expect them to be anything less than pretty darn optimistic. But if we put aside our optimism, it would be difficult to imagine the 2010 Florida Marlins making the playoffs. The reasons go beyond the number of games behind the Fish are compared to the NL East and Wild Card leaders.
From the second game of the series, the Marlins had an offensive explosion that helped to override the average pitching and defensive performance from the starters. The Fish took the series and finished off the season 10-6 versus the New York Mets, all the meanwhile pulling within six games of the NL Wild Card and 8 1/2 games of the Atlanta Braves in the NL East.
Series Hero: Gaby Sancez (0.486 WPA)
Series Goat: Mike Stanton (-0.291 WPA)
Impressed By: Hanley Ramirez (15 PA, 10 H, 1 2B, 1 HR, 0 BB, 0 K, 3 SB)
Depressed By: Mike Stanton (12 PA, 0 H, 5 K)
I’ve used the Four Factors tool at length to examine a couple of interesting seasons, those of Hanley Ramirez, newly minted San Francisco Giant Cody Ross, and future of the Marlins Mike Stanton. Another cog for the future of this franchise is Cameron Maybin, a former top prospect who has taken a significant hit in status since the start of 2009. Ever since he opened the 2009 year as the Marlins’ center fielder and leadoff man, Maybin has struggled with his game, being unable to translate minor league success into major league performance.
We know the reason why Maybin has struggled in the bigs: strikeouts. In 489 career PA, most of them coming with Florida, Maybin has struck out 136 times, a 27.8% rate. It is important to point out, just as we discussed with Mike Stanton and his future prospects, that players who strike out at a rate that high need help to become valuable offensive contributors. For the vast majority of major leaguers with sky-high strikeout rates, they compensate this with added power and more walks. However, Maybin has been average at best at drawing walks and does have his struggles with plate discipline, and he has never shown the kind of home run power needed to overcome such a high strikeout rate.
The Marlins made an interesting move over the weekend, allowing the San Francisco Giants to take Cody Ross without any return after the Giants claimed the outfielder on waivers. I was shocked myself to see that the Fish received nothing in return for Ross’ services, especially given the fact that Ross still had a season left of team control. Combine that with the fact that Ross was a fan and clubhouse favorite, and it seems puzzling that the team would do such a thing. How could this move be conceived as a positive for the Fish? Well, let’s go through what the move takes away and gives to us.
Continuing my little Four Factors obsession this week, I wanted to take a look at the season we’ve seen so far from Mike Stanton. The rookie sensation has been amazing so far this season, batting a fairly ridiculous .266/.342/.547 (.381 wOBA) in his first exposure to major league pitching. Of course, some of it is likely a little out of line of than what you would expect. Remember, when Stanton first came up to the majors, I attempted to project how he would do based on his crazy season in Double-A and a conglomeration of his preseason projections. It may be time to revisit and revise that projection and compare which aspects of his game seem a bit out of line.
Call to the Pen
FanSided
Kings of Kauffman (Royals)
Rising Apple (Mets)
SoDo Mojo (Mariners)
Teddy Never Wins (Nationals)
That Balls Outta Here (Phillies)
Tomahawk Take (Braves)
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